A New View of Who We Are

The economy has experienced 5 consecutive quarters of growth. We are officially more than a year past the end of the recession.

I’m guessing that you, like me, responded to that fact with something like “HA!.” We all still feel it. Every small business owner knows, in his or her bones, that the problems aren’t over. It isn’t 2006. In fact, it isn’t 2003, or 1997, or anything like what a healthy economy felt like.

I’ve had a dozen owners tell me the same thing over the last few weeks. They are doing a bit more business, but they are personally working harder than they have in years. They’ve cut staff to the bone, and don’t feel confident enough to hire. They don’t have the financial reserves (or the margins) to risk on expanding their workforce, and they aren’t sure enough of the staying power of any recovery to chance it.

They are also facing a psychological barrier to hiring.

Most business owners feel a responsibility to their employees. Although I don’t agree with the whole “employees are family” model, there is some inevitable paternalism (or maternalism) in providing people with the income that sustains their spouses and children. That’s the reason why most business owners are terrible interviewers. They spend much of their time telling prospective employees why theirs is a great company to work for.

The Great Recession did more than just cripple the growth plans of millions of small businesses. It hit us psychologically. Most of us had never laid off anyone before. It was our first experience in telling someone that we had failed as a parental figure. The security and income we had promised was no longer there, and we couldn’t do anything about it.

It damaged us not just financially, but in our perception and self-image as providers. Now we are gun shy. We don’t want to have to go through that again.

Instead of sitting with a prospective employee and describing the wonderful things we are going to do to change his life, we are offering a job with the full knowledge that we may not be able to keep up our end of the deal. We are mortal, and we don’t know, absolutely know, that we can promise that job indefinitely. We have to hedge our bets. We aren’t as confident. We want them to depend on us…but not too much.

The government recognizes that small business has to hire to stimulate growth. (I won’t start now on why loans don’t create small business hiring.) Right now the Federal Reserve predicts that hiring won’t reach absorption levels (meaning the unemployment rate will start to decrease substantially) until the second or third quarter of 2012.

Eighteen months of working long hours and sacrificing personal life is more than most people would accept, but small business owners can do it while standing on their heads. Our tenacity and fortitude is great for survival, but lousy for the economy.

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In the long run

I met with a business owner the other day who has experienced a particularly difficult year. A confluence of economics, technology and criminal activity in his industry has kept him working long hours, with relatively little to show for it.

He is fried. Burned-out. Constantly wearied by the “fight or flight” adrenalin reaction of tensing up every time the phone rings (because it is so often more bad news.) The company isn’t failing financially, but it is failing culturally. People are abandoning ship. They are tired too, and he no longer has the energy to psych them up for the next challenge.

He is also a runner, and he gave me a running analogy that really hit home.

“When you run marathons, there is a point in some races when you decide that you are done. You don’t want to continue. You can’t continue. For me, that usually comes around the 21 mile mark. You have 5 miles to go, but you just don’t have the energy or motivation to run those last 5 miles. You want to sit on the curb and have it all be over.”

“The problem is, you can’t stop. Once you have gone 21 miles, you’ve outdistanced the support services.The help that’s available to the weekend runners who have overextended themselves isn’t there. At 21 miles you are on the way back in. The only help is at the finish line. You can sit down, but there won’t be any golf carts coming along to scoop you up. You won’t get any nourishment. Your clothes and car, along with anything else that might make you feel better, are all at the finish line.”

“So you have to continue, because the only way to get out is to finish the race. You can run the last 5 miles. You can walk. You can crawl. But you can’t stop.”

How many of us have experienced that kind of feeling about our businesses? How many times have you said “If I wasn’t the owner, I’d quit this job?” Have you ever thought about how unfair it is that an employee can say “This is too much,” and just shift the burden to you? He or she can opt out. You can’t.

There isn’t any magic formula for getting past this point. You plug away, probably at a lower effectiveness than you are accustomed to. You take on extra work for the people who bailed out on you. You can run, or walk, or crawl, but you have to get to the finish line.

There is an upside. You will finish, because that’s what made you an entrepreneur in the first place. If you were a quitter, you wouldn’t have gotten this far. You need to focus on how tough it is at the moment, remember it, and save it.

One day this will pass. You will have met the challenges. Circumstances will change. You’ll have a business that runs smoothly, and employees who can do their jobs well. There will be more money in the bank, and less for you to do.

That’s when the little guilt pangs will set in. Maybe you should pay the employees a bit more, just because you can. Maybe you should take on some more responsibilities, because the employees look a bit harried. Maybe they think you are lazy, because you are working fewer hours than they are.

Save your 21-mile memory for that time. Only you will know what you did to earn it. That will have to be enough.

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Why Don’t We "Buy American?"

America’s trade deficit underlies a host of headlines. We continue to send payment for fossil fuels to countries that use it to finance people who kill our soldiers. We borrow trillions from China, so that we can pay them for more consumer goods.

We export our manufacturing jobs, despite our hand-wringing over the disappearance of the American middle-class, because we continue to buy the cheapest least expensive option, regardless of who made it. Do people in North Carolina buy Vietnamese t-shirts, even though they wiped out their textile industry? Probably, or they wouldn’t have t-shirts. Do contractors buy Chinese steel for those new buildings with huge American flags on them? Of course. Without the cheap steel they couldn’t win a bid.

The two great exporters among the advanced economies, Japan and Germany, don’t pay penurious wages. They continue to foster thriving manufacturing sectors that compete globally. How can they do it when we can’t?

One reason is their strong consumer loyalty to domestic production. While all auto makers have gone global, in Japan most people still drive Japanese cars, and in Germany they drive German. Both nations’ cars gained a reputation for quality by competing in difficult domestic markets. When they went global, they brought with them highly refined products. I remember buying American cars in the 70’s and 80″s, when it was an accepted practice to bring the car back to the dealer after 600 miles to fix the rattles, paint drips, and malfunctioning accessories. Those were not acceptable flaws in German and Japanese cars, and when they were made available to us, we snapped them up.

But it isn’t just quality and price that makes American consumers “disloyal” to American products. It is who we are. As a nation of immigrants, we have never developed a homogeneous “us against them” worldview.

Ask me my nationality (at least while I am traveling within this country), and I will answer “Italian.” Ask me where I am from, and I’ll answer “Texas.” That is despite the fact that I am fifth generation American, was raised in New Jersey, and that my children were born in California. Does that make me less American? Of course not. That is what it means to be an American. We are all aware of our connections beyond our country. In fact, most of us have never seen most of our own country.

Germans are very German. They are one ethnicity. They mostly look similar, not counting minor variances in coloring and body type. A Palestinian or Indian or Turk in Germany stands out as “not one of us.” Many are never eligible for citizenship.

In Japan it is even more pronounced. Worried about aging issues, the Japanese government recently tried to encourage immigration from the substantial Japanese community in Brazil, with the logic that those people were, at least physically, Japanese. It was a miserable failure. They weren’t Japanese enough.

But in America we happily adopt as a national uniform clothing invented by a German immigrant (Levi’s) put our money in an institution founded by an Italian immigrant (Bank of America) and read this blog courtesy of a company co-founded by a Russian immigrant (Google.) We aren’t hard-wired to look at nationality or ethnicity before anything else, because doing so would be contrary to who we are.

In Europe and Japan they are facing massive problems with an ageing population. They have no mechanisms to address immigration, and immigration is an absolute necessity if they are to grow their economies with new job creation. We are the only “old” economy with a birthrate high enough to sustain growth.

Of course, we can’t do it by continuing to sink into debt. I always thought that the economic model that said Americans would thrive simply by “doing things” for each other was a crock.We need to produce something that other people want to buy. The problem isn’t that we don’t buy enough American goods. It’s that the rest of the world doesn’t. We shouldn’t blame them for the areas where we can’t compete. It isn’t their fault. They are simply following the standards we created.

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The Only Thing We Have to Fear?

“The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” FDR famously broadcast during the Great Depression. His speech didn’t end that economic slump, and the election next week won’t end this one. It will, however, help.

The Republicans are currently projected to win 10-15 more seats than they need for a majority in the House, and fall 2-3 short of that in the Senate. Given their recalcitrance in passing legislation this term, and the general lack of statesmanship in our national legislature, I don’t expect the election results to dramatically change our business climate.

But we will think it can, and that is always important. The stories of delayed decision-making in business abound. Contracts unsigned. Loans approved but not accepted by the borrower. Purchases delayed. Business owners throughout the country are acting like deer in the headlights.

Who can blame us? The tax burden for 2011 is still an unknown. We don’t know how much it will cost to hire another employee. I hear a lot of folks saying “I haven’t worked this hard in 10 years” because their business is picking up a bit, but they are too lean to staff for the increase and are taking it all on themselves.

The election won’t change anything right away, but people will feel that at least they have the power to make changes. Once again we will exercise our legal right to protest. That alone will make us more inclined to start moving forward.

Unlike the dip of 2001-2002, we won’t have debt-fueled consumer spending to pull this one out, so attitude alone won’t do it. But it will help.

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There are lies, damn lies,

and statistics,

I just ran across this U.S. Postal Service press release from 1996.

“In 1940, a one pound loaf of bread cost 8 cents, and in 1995 it cost 79 cents. A half gallon of milk went from 25 cents to $1.43 in the same period. A first class postage stamp went from 3 cents to 32 cents. Bottom line, first class postage stamps remain well below the rate of inflation.”

Well, not really. Those numbers yield an annual average increase of 3.22% for milk (177% overall.) It’s 4.25% for bread (233% overall.) and 4.4% for a stamp (242% overall.)

So staying “well below” the rate of inflation means being the fastest rising item in the market basket. I think I’m beginning to understand the Federal budget.

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