2013: Planning for Uncertainty

Every conversation that I’ve had with business owners over the last several weeks has revolved around the challenge of planning to do business in a political and economic climate that defies normal planning conventions. The sequestration budgetary measures scheduled to go into effect on January 1, 2013, popularly termed by Ben Bernanke as the “Fiscal Cliff,” has people making moves that may be brilliant, or foolish, or may mean nothing at all.

One client has liquidated his portfolio. Others are standing pat. Some are advancing capital expenditures to take advantage of expanded section 179 credits, which will expire on the first of the year. Others are delaying such purchases, in the belief that deductions will be worth more if tax rates increase. Large corporations have borrowed billion of dollars at historically low rates in order to pay special dividends before the end of the year. Small corporations are stripping their equity out as distributions, and lending it back for working capital.

Small business confidence plunged following the elections, largely because nothing really changed in the battle between a White House focused on expanded entitlements, and a Congress that refuses to pay for them. Whether action is taken to forestall the Cliff, by no means a certainty, no one expects it to be a “Grand Bargain” that will stabilize the deficit and begin to reduce our national debt.

The Economist magazine, among others, calculates the impact of unmodified sequestration to be negative five percent of the Gross Domestic Product, or a recession some 40% more dramatic than the shrinkage in 2009.

What we really fear is that the leaders to whom we’ve entrusted the running of the country are insane. Does either party think that they would emerge unscathed after engineering a depression?

The United States is a grand experiment. We are just over 200 years old as a nation, and as a form of government. The right to vote was originally restricted by age, race, gender and property ownership. No one would regard such a limited franchise as a democracy today. None the less, Thomas Jefferson predicted 200 years ago that this experiment would only last until citizens discovered that they could vote themselves largess from the treasury. In California, where less than 150,000 out of 36,000,000 people pay half of all the state income taxes, did those 150,000 really have a voice in the referendum for higher tax rates?

One hundred years ago, in 1913, the states ratified the sixteenth amendment, which reads in its entirety : “The Congress shall have power to lay and collect taxes on incomes, from whatever source derived, without apportionment among the several States, and without regard to any census or enumeration.”

This is not a diatribe against taxation. I don’t want to live in a country where the poor starve, or the sick lie begging on the sidewalk. I’ve been to some of those places, and I’m glad we are civilized enough to address social needs with tax dollars.

In order to generate those tax dollars, we have to run our businesses at a profit. The time we are wasting in trying to figure out what comes next isn’t helping anyone.

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Santa Boss: The Role of a Business Owner

Ebenezer Scrooge was visited by three ghosts, so it’s fitting that I tackle the issue of the holidays three times. We’ve discussed terminations close to the holidays, and the custom of dispensing year-end bonuses. But in the end Dicken’s Scrooge was enlightened by the ghosts, and began dispensing his wealth to the Cratchit family (especially Tiny Tim), in amounts disproportionate to the market value of father Bob the clerk’s position.

Most business owners are wealthier than their employees. It’s your business, and you have the right to enjoy the financial benefits of the risk, the work and the sacrifices you make (or made in the past) by taking the profits as your reward. Yet many of us feel a twinge of guilt when we hear of an employee struggling financially. We provide a livelihood for families, and we feel that responsibility every day. When an employee is unable to meet his or her obligations, there is a little internal voice that suggests we should be doing something about it.

I know owners who diligently avoid having employees visit their homes, because they fear being labeled as “rich.” Others host a holiday party at their house every year, and feel that they are sharing their success with the staff by letting them see the material results of their collective effort. There is no obvious difference in the attitude of the employees between the two . Most of those attending the home-based parties still think that their boss is fair and generous. Some of those who have never seen their boss’s house still assume that he is filthy rich.

In a recent meeting of one of my groups in The Alternative Board® a member posed the question; “Why do you try to grow your business?” Not one person answered “To make more money.” They want to offer opportunities to employees, serve customers, and in some cases build a legacy for the future. Once we have satisfied our lifestyle needs, few business owners are driven merely by numbers in a bank account.

Owning a business is a privilege, because none of us would be successful without a decent modicum of luck. It is also a trust. We all carry the burden of knowing that our employees depend on us to make the best decisions, and to anticipate the things that might risk a secure future for them and their families.

We don’t serve that trust by dispensing charity, or by paying a few workers beyond their market value, and thus leaving less for the others. We serve it by watching expenses carefully, by monitoring managers’ decisions that could put jobs at risk, and by offering opportunities for people who want to do better. Our businesses are our most powerful tools to better the lives of others. In the long run, spreading the profits around has far less impact than using them to grow new jobs and new opportunities.

I thought I’d seen every feature film version of “A Christmas Carol.” I know the Reginald Owen, Alastair Sim, Michael Caine (Muppet), George C. Scott, Patrick Stewart, Bill Murray and Mr. Magoo versions. (It seems upon researching that I missed a recent Jim Carrey rendition.) They differ only slightly, but as I recall in one or two of those Scrooge’s climactic change of heart includes offering Bob Cratchit a partnership.

That is the appropriate role of a business owner. Using your company to give teaching and experience to people so that they can better themselves is the best present anyone could provide. It is one that lasts a lifetime.

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2 Responses to Santa Boss: The Role of a Business Owner

  1. Clint Moar says:

    Thanks John…
    I’ve never owned a business that supported employees so this is an interesting topic…to be honest, I’ve never worked for a co. that paid a wage/salary that I really felt I’d deserved…the very few times that I did get a “bonus”, I felt it was just balancing out what I’d already worked for/supplied…
    You’re right, offering a “piece” of the business would mean much more.
    Clint.

  2. Cheryl S. says:

    I agree with Clint’s comment about how bonuses are perceived. If your bonus in a privately held business is setup on a profit-sharing basis after an owner-established flat amount, then that is what you have been diligently focused on the entire *prior* year, despite the owner controlling those numbers in the end. Bonus potential is discussed prior to the period for which you are working towards it, so I agree that they are very much a ‘balancing out’ of work provided that met or exceeded the documented criteria. Anything new after the labor year in question would be a simple breach, wouldn’t it?

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Year End Bonuses: Incentive or Entitlement?

It’s time for our annual discussion of the Holiday bonus.I pine for the days of my spiritual ancestor Ebenezer, who was offended at the expectation that he would pay Cratchit a whole day’s wages without receiving any work in return. One year I tried telling my staff to “make sure that you are in all the earlier the next day.” (It didn’t work.)

Today, the expectation of employees is that they will not only be paid for the day, but that there should be something more to show that they are really appreciated. That might be a monetary gift, or as is the custom in many small businesses, the “year-end bonus.”

Year end bonuses may theoretically be tied to profits, but since the year really hasn’t ended, they are often just subjective gifts. Owners give themselves some vague justification (the employees don’t need one) such as “We’ve had a good year” or, if cash flow is tight, “We’ve had a tough year.” They then consider seniority, or salary, or what the employee got last year, or the phase of the moon or some other specious excuse for measurement that has almost nothing to do with actual performance metrics, and they attach a dollar number to it.

From the employees’ perspective, the year-end bonus comes in two flavors. 1) More than I got last year, or 2) less than I got last year.

Knowing that, many bosses sit with last year’s table of bonuses, determining whether each should be increased or decreased, and by what percentage in comparison to others. They labor in the incredible belief that this single figure will serve as a performance review, reinforcement for good performers, warnings to those on the fence, recognition for (recent) past achievements, organizational bonding, retention incentive, cultural reinforcement, and a giant leap towards goodwill for all mankind.

Then the owner complains for two weeks that no one said “thank you.” Why should they? No one is sure if what they got was good or bad. They don’t know how they were measured, or whether they were at the top or bottom of the totem pole. No employee wants to look like an idiot by thanking the boss for what might have been a warning.

The holidays are a time for giving gifts. A gift is a token of your esteem for someone. It isn’t supposed to be determined by performance. It isn’t supposed to be calculated as just a little bit nicer or just a little bit smaller than the gift you gave to the next person. It isn’t supposed to be a major part of their family’s income.

Incentive or entitlement? The correct answer is “neither.” If you give out bonuses for performance, or really allocate a portion of profits for the employees, do it after the holidays. Keep the spirit of the season separate from incentives by giving gifts. They should be modest, and fairly even across the board. Make sure you call them gifts. When people know that they’ve received a present, they are more likely to say “thank you.”

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Holiday Terminations: Scrooge or Chicken?

This year, my first holiday termination conversation came on November 20th; a bit early in the season. Like traditionalists who hold off on Christmas decorations until after Thanksgiving Day, most business owners start avoiding termination announcements a few weeks before the holidays.With the Great Pumpkin replacing Macy’s Santa as the official harbinger of the holidays, and “Black Friday” sales starting on Thanksgiving morning, bosses are feeling the pressure of maintaining “Holiday Cheer” in the workplace for almost one-fifth of the working year.

This conversation was typical. “We need to cut costs, and have drawn up a list of folks we will be terminating. Because of the holidays, we will wait until the beginning of the year to make our announcements.”

Who benefits from waiting until after the holidays for a planned termination? Is it really the employee? When the credit card bills come in January for that last surge of overspending on gifts, will the employee say “Boy, I’m glad I didn’t know I was getting fired. I would never have had the nerve to go this far into debt?”

In reality, delaying terminations until just after the holidays is usually because the boss is a chicken. We worry that the social celebration that comes at this time of year will remind our employees what a rotten Scrooge we are if we’ve just fired someone. We imagine handing out holiday bonuses to people who say “thank you” but are really thinking about what you did to poor Cratchett, who occupied the now-empty cubicle next to them. We visualize holiday parties where friends of the ex-employee stand around the punchbowl talking about what Bob’s rotten boss did to him last week.

Terminating someone before the holidays helps them to budget rationally, and allows them to utilize the best networking time of year to get the word out about their availability. Despite the benefits, I won’t pretend that anyone will consider a pre-holiday termination an act of kindness. Job hunting in the weeks before the New Year is still a largely futile endeavor.

If you really want to be generous, terminate the employee with a substantial cash sum in hand. You might use any accrued vacation for part of it, but with prepaid holiday compensation and a bit more you can probably get them through the first of the year.

I know that it sounds ridiculous to pay extra to an employee you are firing. I can hear the arguments: “We don’t do that for anyone else.” (But you don’t fire other people during the annual doldrums in the job market.) “We can’t reward someone for doing a poor job.” (But it isn’t a reward, it is a gift.) “The other employees will feel that we aren’t being fair to them.” (True, but they aren’t going to praise you anyway.)

From a practical perspective, there is little or no difference between paying the employee now, and paying him to hang around for another month. To start, the employee was presumably an underperformer or redundant, that is why we are having this discussion. Throw in paid time off, a holiday bonus, and a typically slow time for most businesses and you have the worst ratio of the year between pay and productivity .

On the other hand, you have a chance to avoid being either a Scrooge or a chicken. Your announcement to the employees can go like this: “We have terminated Bob. Because this is an especially difficult time of year to be job hunting, we have arranged to pay him through the holidays while he seeks another position.”

It may not make you into Santa Clause, but you will feel better, and it will help shore up your punchbowl reputation.

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2 Responses to Holiday Terminations: Scrooge or Chicken?

  1. Sarah Burke says:

    Yesterday I was “involuntarily terminated” for the first time in my 55yr life…no one saw it coming. Anyway, today, still in quite a state of shock, I realize what high hurtles must be vaulted, in addition to the futility of engaging in a job search during the holiday season: filing (and hopefully qualifying) for UI; researching, deciding how to continue, and actually paying for, continued medical insurance which is mandatory in the state where I live; encouraging supervisors, colleagues, and professional associates to provide written recommendations while they are preparing for or are away for the holidays; and coping with depressed immediate family members; just to name a few. Had my employer waited until after the holiday season to terminate me, I could have been spared all these additional, time consuming, challenges and appropriately spent this most holy time of year in the joyful company of family and friends (many of whom are my co-workers). Employee termination during the holidays is an act of spiritual robbery that has a devastating impact which is farther reaching and longer lasting than termination at any other time of year 🙁

    • John F. Dini says:

      I’m sorry for your pain, Sarah. Unexpected termination at any time of year is a terrible experience. In cases where it is because of the performance of the business, I certainly promote sufficient severance compensation to carry the former employee through until interviewing starts again in January. If the termination is because an employee didn’t respond to progressive discipline or a performance improvement plan, then I don’t see an obligation to carry someone in the “spirit of the season.” You say that you didn’t see it coming, so I assume either it was the first issue (overall business performance) or your former employer didn’t follow fair and equitable HR practices. From a job search perspective, use those contacts and stay joyful. Even your best friends don’t want to be dragged down at holiday events. Regardless of how you really feel, use this social time to act excited about making a change, and ask those in your circle outright for connections that might lead to new opportunities. My heartfelt good wishes in your search.

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Success: Is Good Enough, Good Enough?

On Friday’s On Point program on NPR, Devlin Barrett and Tom Ricks discussed the burgeoning “Generals’ Affair” scandal. This weekend, the Wall Street Journal has a commentary by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, which reinforces several analyses in that paper last week. The two have something in common, and an interesting parallel to small business.

Part of the radio conversation focused on the opinions of Petraeus as a great General, with specific comparisons to George S. Patton. His handling of the “surge” in Iraq, when the US was in real danger of another ignominious Vietnam-type withdrawal is, according to this viewpoint, tactically equivalent to Patton’s strikes across Europe in WWII.

The problem with that thinking, as the commentators pointed out, is that Petraeus didn’t win. We still withdrew from Iraq, leaving a country in turmoil with a strong insurgency, and without curbing the growing influence of Iran. It is true that Petraeus did a marvelous tactical job, but he didn’t accomplish the big objective.

Similarly, the WSJ stories about Mitch McConnell described why he can’t cooperate in any tax increases, because he has to stand for reelection in two years. The premise appears to be that he can fail to fix the country’s problems, but will still be considered successful if he personally retains his position.

As small business owners, we don’t have the same flexibility in judging our results. Small businesses either succeed or they fail. I’ve met many former owners who tell me that their business had a great product, but unfortunately enough people didn’t buy it. Others say that they delivered a terrific service, but they couldn’t price it well enough to make a profit. Not to be harsh, but we call those failures.

We live in a black and white world. Your definition of success as a business owner may be as modest as financial security for your family, or it may be as ambitious as growing a large corporation that employs thousands of people. It is probably something in between. But whatever the objective, I never hear business owners say that they judge success as being just “good enough.”

No one is asked to deliver a presentation titled “I am a great entrepreneur, because I avoided failure” Other owners would laugh the speaker out of the room. How would you feel about a doing business with a company whose mission statement said “We don’t worry about delivering what we are paid for, as long as we get paid?”

Harry Truman was the last President to have owned a small business. It failed. His famous desk plaque, “The Buck Stops Here,” was a small business owner’s view of the world. He didn’t blame his generals, or his cabinet, or market conditions. He knew that success was success, not merely avoidance of failure, or of the blame for failure.

As business owners, our concept of success or failure isn’t fungible, it’s inherent in everything we do, every single day. Harry Truman had worked without a net. He understood a world where failure wasn’t softened by a fat pension, transfer to another department, or a speaking tour.

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