Generational Difference (on radio)

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Four Basics of Exit Planning 1: Valuation

There are four basics an owner should address before beginning any exit, succession or transition plan. They are Valuation, Distance to Goal, Prospective Buyers and Professional Team.

First, my apologies for missing a tri-weekly post. Between trips to Denver for BEI’s National Exit Planning Conference, Dallas for a client, San Antonio for our own XPX Exit Planning Summit, Nashville for the national EPI Exit Planning Summit and St. Louis for Archford’s Metro Business Owner Summit, I kind of lost track of my posting schedule.

Here is the first of the four basic requirements. I promise not to dally in posting the rest of full set.

Understanding Valuation

Value is the starting point for all transition planning. Any decision, any business plan, and every retirement projection (either for time frames or finances) must start with the value of your business today.

Knowing the value of your business is different from thinking you know it. I talk to many owners who say “I met a guy at a trade show, and he told me that he knows a guy with a business just like mine who sold his company for five million dollars. I think I’m a little bigger than he was, so I know my business is worth at least six million.”

Sounds foolish? How about “My accountant says that all small business sell for about five times earnings.” Or “Everyone in my industry knows that all companies like ours sell for one and a half times revenue.”

Any valuation estimate that is in the same sentence as “all,” or “everyone” is a crock. Multiples may serve as guidelines, but the value of a specific business is always unique to that business.

How much is a manufacturer of disposable paper products worth? How much if they specialize in paper straws? How much does that value change every time McDonalds or Southwest Airlines announces that they are switching to paper straws? How much is it worth if it is the last paper straw manufacturer in the USA (like Aardvark® Straws?) If you understand value, your mental estimate should have changed with each sentence.

Every change in the above paragraph described an intangible. Events and market conditions are as important, or in some cases more important, than last year’s numbers. Valuation starts with profitability and cash flow, but the real price that someone will pay for a business lies in the intangibles.

Intangibles

There are scores of intangible factors affecting business value. Most are related to customers, employees or systems. Ask yourself these questions (although there are many more.)

  • Customers:
    • Do you get more than 20% of your sales from one customer?
    • Is your revenue recurring (by contract) or a series of one-time transactions?
    • Is your value proposition more than just “good service?”
    • Are steady or repeat customers increasing their purchases?
    • Can you forecast their purchasing accurately?
  • Employees:
    • Do you have managers that can run day to day operations without you?
    • Are your key employees too close to retirement age?
    • Is turnover too high, or nonexistent?
    • Are important positions cross trained via a formal process?
    • Do you have non-competes and/or long term retention incentives?
  • Systems
    • How accurate is your budgeting when compared to historical reality?
    • Are all processes documented and followed?
    • Is equipment carefully maintained?
    • Are proprietary systems and knowledge protected?
    • Do you track the effectiveness of sales and advertising expenses?

All valuations begin with profitability and cash flow. Most business appraisals take at least a cursory look at a few of the intangibles listed above. Buyers, however, will look at all of these factors and more.

Understanding the four basics of exit planning starts with valuation. If you don’t know where you are, it’s tough to plan where you are going.

For over twenty years, business owners have asked me “What can I do to increase the value of my company?” My answer is always the same.

“Exactly what you should be doing to improve it every day.”

Do you think you know the value of your business? Try the “Sellers Sanity Check,” a free tool at YourExitMap.com

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One Response to Four Basics of Exit Planning 1: Valuation

  1. David Cunningham says:

    Monitoring the growth or decline in the value of a company is an important business metric. It helps owners justify the effort they puts into the company, assess risk/return on use of capital or debt, and make exit and retirement decisions. The owner can establish a valuation process for the valuation, and repeat it each year. This process can be a wake up call to opportunities or threats.

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Exit Planning: Ripples and Ripples.

Every stone thrown into a pond creates ripples. Every advance in technology does the same.

The late Stephen Hawking said that we were progressing too quickly. Along with other technology and science notables, he argued for a slowing down of development in Artificial Intelligence (AI).

Most current “AI” is actually machine learning. As computing speed increases exponentially, the ability of a computer to calculate, test hypotheses and weigh varying outcomes increases as well. Computers can now beat the best humans at every game ever invented. From Chess to Go, and from Texas Hold ‘Em to Ms. Pac Man, binary geniuses are sorting through billions of possibilities, and even being credited with rudimentary “intuition.”

But Machine Learning isn’t intelligence. A computer can sort through every chess move possible, but has trouble deciding what to do when a person with a bicycle steps out between two cars.  What if the correct answer is to swerve into oncoming traffic? A computer can’t make that call.

Robots on the Roads

That doesn’t mean you can be smug about what is coming. Take autonomous trucks. Clearly they aren’t smart enough (yet) to negotiate narrow city streets, bumper to bumper traffic jams or unload oddly-shaped cargo. That would require some real intelligence. But they don’t have to. They can just take care of the 80% of the easy stuff, long haul driving. Automatically driving great distances on relatively clear roads is completely feasible right now.

What if autonomous trucks were limited to driving from 8:00 PM to 6:00 AM? A few lanes on interstate highways could easily be electronically tagged for higher speed,  and robot-truck only use. They can follow more closely, having both quicker reaction times and the connected ability to “see” what is happening further ahead. A truck that doesn’t have to stop for food or sleep could cover a lot of ground in ten hours of high speed driving. Daytimes would be reserved for human-operated local delivery.

Ripples in the Pond.

How much would that affect trucking and other industries?

There would be far fewer driver jobs, although most drivers would likely be closer to home.

Traffic would be greatly lessened during the day. Good, you say? Tell that to the paving contractors, sign companies, crane operators, orange cone manufacturers, lighting and signal electricians or bridge builders. It could be decades before we have to expand highway capacity again. With the speed of technological advancement, decades could translate into “never.”

Is this good news for truck stops, all night diners, and budget motels? Heavy equipment manufacturers? Civil engineering companies? Public sector spending on highway construction is almost $100 billion every year. For comparison, that’s about the size of the whole digital/streaming TV and video industry.

Returning to the trucking industry itself, I doubt that trucks will remain as “one size fits all.”  Current testing is on models than can be autonomous, but also accommodate a human driver. The latter will go away. Robotic models can greatly reduce size, be more aerodynamic, and weigh less. They would also be more fuel efficient, and could be electric.

Uh oh. Trucks consume almost a quarter of all the petroleum products used in the U.S. That starts the conversation about the impact on oil companies, the fuel distribution network, gas dispenser manufacturers, drillers, pipeline construction, tank fabrication and installation…the ripples continue.

As an Exit Planner, I’m predisposed to look down the road, and to consider the risk in every transfer. Not all scenarios are doom and gloom, and many new industries will be born, most of which I can’t imagine.

I guess my message is that none of us should be smug about the future. If the financial community sees a threat on the horizon, expect lenders and investors to run the other way, fast. We watch the stones. They watch the ripples.

 

 

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Podcast – Money Chasing Businesses

On Jim Blasingame’s “Small Business Advocate” show, Jim asked me about the flood of professional money chasing mid-market businesses. I thought you might like to listen to this segment. Two Factors Driving Business Sales.

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Succession Planning – Ownership Lessons

When selling your business to employees or family, ownership lessons rise to a special level of importance. Regardless of the financial, inheritance, estate or valuation aspects of the plan, the real question is how to prepare your successors to run the company.

I’ve written before about the Luxury of No Resources. When you started out, making mistakes was part of your business education. The company was small, so the mistakes were small. Now you’ve built a substantial enterprise, and your successors can’t afford to learn by trial and error. (Especially if you are depending on them to be successful enough to pay you for the business!)

Experience is what you get when you don’t get what you want. We  learn very little from our successes. (“Hey, it worked! I guess I’m just brilliant.”) We learn a lot more from our failures. (“I sure as hell won’t let THAT happen again.”)

Trial by Fire

For many founders, business started off well because they had customers lined up and some reputation in their field. Their real learning experience came when a large customer defected to a competitor, or there was a recession, or a key employee quit. That’s when we learn fast how to pay attention to the numbers and solve problems on the cheap.

So how do you prepare new ownership without having them go through the same trials by fire? Here are a few suggestions.

  • Segregate a department or division as a profit center. Make the manager in charge prepare a budget, generate independent financial statements and take on all of the HR responsibilities.
  • Use history to teach. Take a past bid, order, customer or product for which you already know that there was a bad outcome. Have the employee make the decision again, and use the historical experience to discuss together whether it would turn out better or worse with the employee’s decisions.
  • Tie one hand behind their back. Task them to train a group of new people, but without your training manager’s help. Have them open a new territory without your marketing department. Help them to understand that the resources you provide may not always be there.

Of course, you will still be there to head off mission-critical errors. Letting them fail with limits on the damage, however, will render ownership lessons that prepare them for when you aren’t there.

 

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