What does being prepared for 2023 mean for business owners who are approaching, at, or already beyond normal retirement age?
It’s become fashionable to pontificate about the “inevitable” recession in the coming year. There is an argument for not talking ourselves into making it happen. Unfortunately, there are indisputable reasons why it is going to occur regardless of whether we discuss it or not.
Inflationary stimulus (including $6 trillion of ”quantitative easing”) in the US, combined with over-dependency on Russian gas supply in Europe and falling industrial production from COVID lockdowns in China have created the proverbial slow-motion car wreck for the world economy. All three will come home to roost for the world’s major markets in 2023.
What will happen?
Just as the result of these failures in leadership is eminently predictable, the impact on businesses in transition is equally plain.
- Company valuations will decline. Inflated multiples fueled by low interest rates for leveraged buyouts have already disappeared. If you are planning your retirement around the value of a year or two ago, it is time to reassess.
- A corollary to declining multiples will be a lack of financing. Market conditions directly impact the availability of acquisition funding. Already, Wall Street has seen a 90% drop in IPOs.
- Running a business will get tougher for some time. The ”Great Resignation” is actually only half driven by increasing worker mobility. The other half is from Boomer retirements. As employees seek a counterbalance to inflation, staffing will be an even bigger issue than sales volume.
Many owners will look back at 2022 as the year they finally decided that enough is enough. Owners overcame the dot-com crash, 9/11, and the Great Recession. Now a combination of resurgent inflation, supply chain headaches and a lack of qualified workers will tip the scales toward developing an exit strategy.
What can an owner do?
Lower valuations call for creativity in structuring transactions. Employee buyouts and ESOPs that maximize the benefits of sustainable cash flow can provide owners with income that wouldn’t be available from a hard-negotiated third-party sale.
Seller financing or installment sales may offer flexibility that brings more qualified buyers to the table. Stretching out proceeds as recurring income can help a seller wind up with more in his or her pocket, albeit over a longer time period.
Retaining your top talent will be more important than ever, especially if wages continue to rise. Structured equity sales can act as both an incentive and “golden handcuffs” to ensure that a company’s best employees, and consequently its enterprise value, remain intact through dips in revenue.
Prepared for 2023
Many owners were lulled into a false sense of security by frequent calls from business brokers and private equity groups. They may have postponed their planning in the belief that a transition could always happen whenever they felt the urge.
When the phone stops ringing, they will need cooler heads to help them understand that there are options besides a fire sale. Equity can be retained, and retirement can be secured. Work with an advisor who understands the alternatives to “List it and they will come.”
Companies will still be sold in the coming year. Prices may be lower, but are only falling from the unrealistic high driven by cheap money. It may feel like you are getting less than market value, but multiples have only receded to their historical mean.
If this is the year for you to begin your “second act,” it’s still the same approach as it was before. Being prepared for 2023 is a matter of researching the market, planning the process, and hiring qualified professionals.
